Back to Markets

How CaribPredict Works

Trade on the outcomes of real events across the Caribbean. If you think something will happen, buy shares. If you're right, you earn sats.

STEP 1

Create Account

Sign up with your email in seconds. No KYC required to get started.

STEP 2

Deposit Sats

Fund your account with Bitcoin via the Lightning Network. Instant, low-fee deposits.

STEP 3

Trade Markets

Buy shares in outcomes you believe in. Prices reflect real-time probability.

STEP 4

Earn Rewards

When a market resolves, correct predictions pay out. Withdraw your winnings anytime.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where you can trade shares on the outcomes of future events. Each market asks a question like "Will Jamaica's GDP grow by more than 3% in 2026?" with possible outcomes (Yes/No or multiple options).

Share prices range from 1 to 99 sats, representing the market's estimated probability of that outcome. If a share is trading at 70 sats, the market collectively believes there's approximately a 70% chance that outcome will happen.

When the event occurs and the market resolves, shares of the winning outcome pay out 100 sats each. Shares of losing outcomes become worthless. So if you bought "Yes" at 70 sats and it resolves Yes, you earn 30 sats profit per share.

How Pricing Works

CaribPredict uses a Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) automated market maker. This means you can always buy or sell shares — you don't need to find another trader on the other side. The system provides continuous liquidity.

Prices adjust automatically based on demand. When many people buy "Yes" shares, the price goes up (probability increases). When people sell, the price goes down. This creates a self-correcting mechanism that aggregates the collective knowledge of all participants.

Why the Caribbean?

The Caribbean is one of the most dynamic regions in the world — from elections and economic policies to cricket, carnival, and hurricane seasons. But until now, there hasn't been a dedicated prediction market for the region.

CaribPredict covers all 15 CARICOM member states: Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Guyana, Suriname, Bahamas, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat.

Lightning Fast

Instant deposits and withdrawals via Bitcoin Lightning Network. No waiting for confirmations.

Transparent Resolution

Markets are resolved using publicly verifiable sources. Resolution criteria are displayed on every market.

Real-Time Data

Watch prices update in real-time as events unfold. Live activity feed shows every trade.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much do I need to start?

There's no minimum deposit. You can start with as little as a few hundred satoshis (fractions of a cent). Single shares can cost as low as 1 sat.

How are markets resolved?

Markets are resolved by platform administrators based on publicly verifiable information — news reports, official statistics, and public records. Resolution criteria are specified when each market is created.

Can I sell my shares before a market resolves?

Yes! You can buy and sell shares at any time before market resolution. The automated market maker ensures there's always liquidity available.

Is this gambling?

Prediction markets are information aggregation tools — they harness collective intelligence to estimate probabilities. Unlike traditional gambling, the outcomes are tied to real-world events, and trading skill (research, analysis) gives you an edge.

What happens if a market is cancelled?

In rare cases where a market becomes unresolvable, it may be voided. In that case, all shares are refunded at their original purchase price.

How do I withdraw my winnings?

Click the Bitcoin balance button in the navigation bar to open the wallet. From there you can withdraw to any Bitcoin Lightning wallet instantly.

Ready to start predicting?

Join the Caribbean's first prediction market platform.